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Let's assume Sir Keir Starmer wishes to win the next election. Let's also presume he has no desire to be replaced as Prime Minister in the next year or so by Wes Streeting or Angela Rayner or anybody else.
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He's a political leader, after all, and politicians relish power - Starmer more than most, I would think. I also recommend that he's at least averagely smart, and should be able to weigh up the possibilities of any policy being successful.
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After the battles, compromises and embarrassments involved in achieving high workplace, [Starmer](http://seasiderealestate.al) has no intention of throwing it all away. Why, then, does he show every indication of doing so?
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On the single problem that might matter most to a majority of voters, he is speeding towards certain catastrophe, while himself any possibility of an escape path. I suggest the boats stumbling upon the Channel.
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Varieties of migrants doing the 21[-mile journey](https://lilypadpropertiesspain.co.uk) are up by 42 per cent on the exact same duration in 2015. An [analysis](http://vasanthipromoters.com) by The Times, using similar modelling as Border Force, forecasts that 50,000 people will cross the Channel in little boats in 2025. That would be an annual record - and a stonking fiasco for Sir Keir.
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Peering into his mind, I reckon there are 2 primary possible descriptions for his behaviour. One is that he is misguiding himself. He really believes numbers will come down when the procedures he has taken start to work.
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If Starmer still believes that his policies - tossing numerous millions at the French authorities, improving intelligence and utilizing enhanced police powers - will minimize the numbers, that actually is the triumph of hope over experience. The other possibility is that he is already starting dimly to understand that his stratagems will not bear much, if any, fruit. So he and the [Government](https://multiplanet.ae) have actually chosen to pull the wool over our eyes. A deadly technique.
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There have been two such examples in current days. Having said in an online post on Monday that he felt 'angry' about the numbers crossing the Channel (how does he believe the rest people feel !?) the PM made a slippery claim.
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Sir Keir Starmer now has absolutely nothing powerful in his locker, Stephen Glover composes
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Only 2,240 small-boat migrants were sent home in the 12 months to March, 3 percent less than in the previous year
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He boasted that 'practically 30,000 individuals' had been eliminated from the UK by this Government. Sounds good. But in reality this [figure refers](https://www.griyasatria.co.id) to all kinds of migrants who have no right to be in our nation. Only 2,240 small-boat migrants were sent out home in the 12 months to March, 3 percent fewer than in the previous year.
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A lie? Good God no! We should not implicate Labour prime ministers, far less Sir Keir Starmer KCB, PC, KC, MP, of telling purposeful fibs. Shall we opt for a statistical deception?
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The other instance of the Government not being totally straight was the Office's claim previously today that there have been more migrants this year since of pleasant weather. These are called 'red days', when the sea is calm.
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But an analysis by my colleague David Barrett in yesterday's Mail shows that in temperate May last year there were 21 'red days' however only 2,765 arrivals, about 1,000 fewer than last month. In mild June 2024 there were 20 'red days', though only 3,007 migrants were taped crossing the Channel.
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The most likely description is that last May and June the Government's strategy to send out prohibited migrants to Rwanda had finally [cleared relentless](https://properties.jamtoursafrica.com) judicial blockage. Some, at least, were hindered from crossing the Channel for worry of being loaded off to the central African country.
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The Rwanda scheme was far from [ideal -](https://negomboproperty.lk) it was expensive, and accountable to legal obstacle due to the fact that the country has an authoritarian government - but at least it had some prospect of deterring migrants. The inbound Labour Government got rid of its only plausible means of suppressing the boats.
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Helpful for Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, who in a speech tomorrow will carry out to resurrect a strategy strikingly similar to the Rwandan one.
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Starmer now has absolutely nothing powerful in his locker. Literally nothing. He can give more millions to the French federal government however it will not make much, if any, distinction. French authorities will still loll around on beaches, thinking about the sand castles they made as children, as they see [migrant boats](http://www.freeghar.in) setting off for Dover.
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The truth is that the French will never ever strain themselves due to the fact that every migrant who leaves their coasts is one less migrant for them to worry about. It is ignorant to think of that they are ever going to be zealous on our behalf.
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STEPHEN GLOVER: Keir Starmer is a soft guy who can not comprehend the real wicked Britain is facing
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Nor will Sir Keir's idea of improving intelligence and law enforcement be decisive. As for Labour's reported intention to play with Article 8 of the Human Rights Act so as to preclude bogus asylum claims, that is welcome, however even if it ends up being law it is not likely to have much result on total numbers.
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Are the PM and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper starting to panic as they realise they don't have a single policy most likely to satisfy their promise of 'smashing the gangs'? If they aren't desperate, they jolly well ought to be.
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Three weeks ago, Sir Keir was humiliated after he had actually applauded talks over Rwanda-style 'return hubs' only minutes before his Albanian equivalent, standing a few feet away, ruled out any cooperation.
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Maybe the Government will convince the Kosovans or the North Macedonians to establish some sort of scheme. But if it does, it will take months, if not years, and people will wonder why Sir Keir cancelled a plan that he is at least partly trying to restore.
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I've no specific desire to toss Starmer a lifeline however, as I've [suggested](https://www.jandhproperty.com) before, there's one possible course out of the hole he has dug for himself - though it would take huge decision and courage for him to take it.
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There are many unoccupied British islands off our coast and further afield. Pick one of them. Create a camp comparable to those on the Isle of Man that housed alien internees during the War. Build numerous huts - rather than erecting less sturdy tents, as ex-Reform MP Rupert Lowe has proposed.
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[Recruit medical](https://www.buyamexproperty.com) professionals and authorities to evaluate claims more rapidly than occurs at present - and after that return most migrants to where they came from. The cost of establishing such a camp would be a portion of the ₤ 4.3 billion invested in 2015 on housing migrants and asylum seekers.
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Can anybody tell me why not? Few migrants would elegant kicking their heels for months in a camp, however gentle, so it would be a marvellous deterrent. Cross the Channel, and you will be our visitor - on a potentially windy island rather than in a four-star hotel.
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Granted, in order to stave off vexatious legal challenges we 'd probably need to derogate from the European Court of Human Rights, which would be a step too far for our cautious Prime Minister.
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But he does not have a better idea. In truth, he hasn't got any ideas at all that are accountable to stem the growing varieties of people streaming across the English Channel.
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Things can only worsen - and as they do Labour will sink ever lower in public esteem. Does Sir Keir Starmer actually wish to be the signatory of his own political death warrant?
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RwandaAngela RaynerLabourWes Streeting
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